| COVID-19, REAL INSIGHTS: CONSOLIDATING REAL INFORMATION AND BRINGING THE HYPE INTO A RATIONAL SPACE |
I am not an alarmist by nature but rather consider a preventative approach to all things. However, when you read the news (off the main hyped media sites) of the US and how the Coronavirus is spreading, you become alarmed not only for the speed the virus is spreading but for the lack of care and acknowledgement amongst the South African community. Global SA data shows: South Africa 709 infected, +155 new cases, 4 have recovered, 705 active case and 2 critical.
At the time of writing:
Right now we can barely keep up with the numbers. Although slow at outbreak stage in SA, it has been reported that there are now 24,000+ confirmed coronavirus infections in the USA, with 288 deaths. Things are moving at breakneck speed, and now they predicting there will be 70,000 confirmed infections in the USA by the end of next week. There is calculations that COVID-19 doubles every 3 days.
As many as 70,000 Americans could be confirmed as infected with coronavirus by the end of next week, marking a “pretty dramatic” increase in the number of confirmed cases, the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, told his employees in an agency-wide conference call on Friday.
This doesn’t mean 70,000 people will get infected next week, it means the testing is finally starting to catch up to the reality of the situation, which is rather grim.
The top health official of the State of New Jersey is now stating everyone will get the Wuhan coronavirus. Even with social distancing, the USA will almost certainly reach 100,000 deaths in the months ahead.
What has been described above is the simple math version that was created. Actually they created far more elaborate coronavirus pandemic projection models that take into account lag times, social distancing factors and the phenomenon of previously infectious people overcoming the virus and no longer being infectious.
One model, predicted 585 deaths by March 30th. Obviously, the model was too conservative, since the USA has already reached 580 deaths a week earlier (yesterday).
That model projected 10,000 deaths in America by the end of April. It’s now fairly clear that will happen closer to mid-April. By the end of May, if strong social distancing factors are not increased, the model shows 100,000 coronavirus deaths in the USA.
What is vital to get is this is not the flu, and anyone saying this is the flu, it has been said, is disqualified from talking about anything that involves public health ever again. This is not going to just fade away, and anyone who thinks we can just “get back to work” after a three-week lockdown is living in a fairy tale.
On the other side, and being open to all possibilities, we cannot limit the fact that the coronavirus could be a global biological weapon system designed to exterminate human life, move markets and generate a fortune. If this is the case, it was engineered to spread, to hide and then to kill, and it is carrying out that programming perfectly.
The SA numbers + projected SA trajectory in summary.
- 240 infections as of 21 March, 36% compound daily growth rate over last 9 days
- Based on other country trajectories + similar starting baseline:
- 700 – 1,000 infections in SA by 27 Mar
- 3,000 – 8,000 infections in SA by 03 Apr
- 5-8 week peak period of infection (Slide 19) across most countries
- Korea peaked over 5 weeks (peaking started 16 Feb)
- Hubei peaked over 8 weeks (peaking started 26 Jan)
- Italy peaking now (peaking started 03 Feb)
- SA starting to peak now, likely 4-8 weeks ahead
Infections still remain mild, also seeing low admission rates across members of the largest medical scheme in the country with COVID-19 infection. This is because we at initial stages.
- 87% of infections in SA below that age of 60 years. This is what we seeing in the US as well.
Important thing right now is to do everything possible to flatten curve in next 2 weeks and prevent further cases. Problem is that one carries the virus for a few weeks before it presents symptoms.
Global reported cases as at the time of writing:
Still considering preventative care, we are waiting on a shipment of 200kg of vitamin C. Small but we are limited unless we have government involvement. Order sooner rather than later. It is one of the only tested treatments that is working for the coronavirus. is Read the clinical guide to vitamin C and vitamin C’s numerous uses and benefits here.